The Market Impact of the NAR Settlement: What to Expect

The real estate market has experienced a significant degree of unpredictability over the past four years, with shifting market conditions and frequent regulatory changes adding layers of complexity. Home sales have been robust heading into the spring, with prices rising at the fastest pace in more than a year. However, the market has been hampered by a chronic shortage of inventory, which has kept home sales at a 30-year low in 2023. This situation raises critical questions about how the market will adapt and evolve as the summer selling season approaches, and whether the recent NAR settlement will serve as a catalyst for change.

The lack of available homes has been a significant obstacle in the housing market, with 2023 seeing home sales at their lowest level in three decades. This is not due to a lack of interested buyers, but rather a lack of homes available for sale. Historically low mortgage rates have “locked in” existing homeowners, discouraging them from selling at higher current rates. Nonetheless, life events such as marriages, divorces, births and elder care needs continue to drive the need for new housing. These factors are expected to put more homes on the market this summer. With inventory levels beginning to rise above last year’s numbers, there is cautious optimism that more listings will continue to emerge, easing some of the inventory pressure as we move through the summer months.

Mortgage rates have remained stubbornly high and are expected to remain in the mid to high sixes through the summer. Several factors are contributing to this situation, including the Federal Reserve’s delayed rate cuts and the federal government’s increased issuance of bonds to service the national debt. These bonds require higher interest rates to attract investors, which in turn keeps mortgage rates elevated. This economic environment has created a cautious atmosphere among potential home buyers and sellers, many of whom are waiting for a significant change in mortgage rates before making their move. However, a dramatic drop in rates seems unlikely in the near future, suggesting that current mortgage rates may be the new normal for the foreseeable future.

The settlement reached by the National Association of Realtors on March 15 marks a significant turning point in the ongoing litigation, proposing substantial financial settlements and the adoption of new practices by brokers, agents and MLSs. The details of this settlement have been widely publicized and have had a significant impact on consumer perceptions and expectations. Some homebuyers are willing to delay their purchases until the new rules take effect in late summer, under the misconception that this could lead to a significant reduction in home prices. Conversely, uncertainty about impending industry changes may cause other buyers to accelerate their home searches, potentially leading to a surge in market activity in late spring and early summer.

The housing market is at a crossroads, filled with both uncertainty and opportunity. Monitoring inventory levels, mortgage rate trends, and consumer sentiment are the most reliable indicators of where the market is headed. The NAR settlement introduces new elements into the mix that could either stimulate or stabilize the market, depending on how the new practices are implemented and perceived by the public. As these changes unfold, they could lead to a more transparent and fair marketplace, which could have a profound effect on the dynamics of the summer housing market.

The real estate market is approaching a potentially transformative period as a result of the NAR settlement. Stakeholders on all sides should pay close attention to how these changes affect market conditions. If the settlement leads to greater transparency and fairer practices, it could energize the market and make the upcoming summer a busy season for real estate. By keeping an eye on key indicators and adapting to new regulations, industry participants can effectively navigate this changing landscape and ensure they are well-positioned to capitalize on emerging opportunities.